Every Exit Is Burning

The world's oil chokepoints are closing, one by one. There is no Plan B for what comes next.

There is a phrase traders use when a position goes wrong in every direction at once. They call it “correlation one.” Every hedge fails. Every spread collapses into the same trade. All the diversification you thought you had turns out to be the same bet, wearing different clothes.

That is what is happening to global oil logistics right now.

Hormuz is shut. Fujairah is on fire. Primorsk and Ust-Luga are under sustained drone bombardment. The Houthis just lobbed a ballistic missile at Israel and are signaling a return to Red Sea harassment. And the President of the United States, rather than coordinating a response, posted on social media telling allies to “go to the Strait and just TAKE IT.”

Every major export chokepoint on the planet is either closed, damaged, or under active threat. This has never happened before. Not in 1973. Not in 1990. Not during the tanker wars of the 1980s. The market is not pricing a single disruption. It is pricing the possibility that the entire physical infrast…