Short OFF-CYCLE Edition: The Compliance Math
OPEC+ said it cut. The seaborne data says otherwise.
Five months into 2026, the cartel’s voluntary cut framework is doing something that anyone reading tanker flows could have called from January. The press releases describe one market. The actual loadings describe another.
Through the first quarter, Kpler-tracked OPEC+ crude exports averaged something close to 28.4 million barrels per day, against a stated target consistent with roughly 27.0. The gap, around 1.4 million barrels daily, did not appear by accident. It appeared because compliance was always going to be a function of fiscal pressure, and the fiscal pressure on Iraq, Kazakhstan, the UAE, and Russia in 2026 is not subtle.
